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Can PMI and DUSL Manufacture a Win?

September 17, 2021
Traders watch the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) release and trade Industrial ETFs.

Editor’s note: Any and all references to timeframes longer than one trading day are for purposes of market context only, and not recommendations of any holding timeframe. Daily rebalancing ETFs are not meant to be held unmonitored for long periods. If you don’t have the resources, time or inclination to constantly monitor and manage your positions, leveraged ETFs are not for you.

In this Xchange, we will discuss:

  • What is the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)?
  • Why PMI is Important
  • What to Expect From the September Release of the PMI
  • What Are Traders Watching in the PMI Report?
  • The Industrial ETF Trading Opportunity – Daily Industrials Bull 3X Shares ETF (DUSL)

What is the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)?

On Thursday, September 23rd, traders await the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The Index incorporates survey results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the country. A reading above 50 suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction.

Why is PMI Important?

Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge.

What to Expect from the September Release of the PMI

Although it’s true that manufacturing accounts for a far lower percentage of economic output than services, it is far more cyclical. That’s why traders find it to be a more useful indicator of where in the economic cycle the economy is currently situated. But the real key for short-term traders is the strength or weakness of the number versus what’s been forecasted.

What Are Traders Watching in the PMI Report?

In August, the index came in at 61.2, which was below the forecasted number of 62.5, and a full 2.2 points below the previous release.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) August release: Actual 61.2, Forecast 62.5, Previous 63.4

Some see this waning as a short-term post-pandemic lull. Due to the start and stop nature of pandemic recovery, the basic materials providers haven’t been able to keep up with demand due to staffing challenges. Order deliveries have been lagging. So should the PMI index move higher than the forecast, the indication may be that industrials, and perhaps the broader indexes may do the same in the weeks to come.  

The Industrial ETF Trading Opportunity – Daily Industrials Bull 3X Shares ETF (DUSL)

For the experienced trader who’s looking for more risk and volatility, one option to bet on the short-term surprise in PMI, is the Direxion Daily Industrials Bull 3X Shares ETFs (DUSL). DUSL seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% or 3X the performance of the Industrial Select Sector Index. There is no guarantee the fund will meet its stated investment objective.

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